The Reds Need A Change at The Top

The Reds need to change by James.

There is no way that this team can win the World Series by playing the wrong players in the wrong spots in the field and in the batting order.

How can a team in a hitter friendly venue that is Great American Ball Park expect to go all the way with pitching and defense?

It can't be done.  Yes the Reds are 42-24 at home but the team is only 38-28 on the road.  That is four game drop off and an indication that the roster is out of whack.

Don't be fooled by the best record in baseball.  You can't continue to play .606 baseball when the top of your batting order can't get on base.

The St. Louis Cardinals are waiting in the weeds with a whopping, Major League Leading, .341 on-base-percentage.  They are after all the defending World Champion.  It is just a matter of time before the Cardinals overtake the pitiful Reds, who are in the middle of the league with a .319 OBP.

The Reds aren't the only team headed down the proverbial drain.  The Los Angeles Dodgers, who are battling to take the NL West have the same OBP at .319.  The Washington Nationals, who have the second best record in baseball are even worse with a .317 OBP.  How in the name of Bill James can these teams expect to compete?

You can not win with your top two hitters in your lineup are ranked dead last among the 59 hitters in the league that qualify for the batting title.  Centerfielder Drew Stubbs is ranked 58th in the league with a .287 OBP.  Rookie shortstop, Zack Cozart, is dead last at .287.  For comparison, St. Louis has three players in the top 11, Matt Holiday (.383), Yadier Molina (.375) and David Freese (.369).  That's how you win. Never mind this offensive Juggernaut has been shut out two games in a row by the Pittsburgh Pirates and have fallen a season-high eight games out of first place.

The 6-2 win is the proof that this current Reds' lineup can't work.

The team only scored six runs with the top two batters only  2-for-10 with five strikeouts.

Everyone who reads Bill James stats or Moneyball, will tell you that you can't score when your top two hitters don't get on base.  You can't win if good defense as your best weapon.  So to insist on playing Drew Stubbs and Cozart because of their ability to save runs is nonsense it will never work.

Preventing runs is over rated, no one has ever won a rotisserie league with defense.  Preventing runs is no way to win a pennant.  The days of the Go-Go Sox or the hitless wonders of the 1906 Chicago White Sox are over.  The 1906 White Sox won the World Series with a team batting average of .230 and an OBP of .301. Winning teams need to score, score and score some more.

The Reds with the best record in baseball are fooling themselves if they think they can beat good teams with this offense.  They are 2-5 against Washington (who have an OBP of .317). Cincinnati has beaten San Francisco in the season series, 4-3.  The Giants have the third best record in the league at 73-57.  The Reds played them in all seven games before the Giants leading hitter was suspended for taking testosterone.  The Reds are 5-1 against the Atlanta Braves with a winning percentage of .565, fourth in the league.  The Reds are 1-2 against the Los Angeles Dodgers owner of the fifth best league record (.534).  The Dodgers team OBP is the same as the Reds (.319).

The Reds are 6-6 with St. Louis and Pittsburgh.  In the all important OBP stat, Pittsburgh is next to last with .304.

The two winning American League opponents the Reds encountered this year are second and third in OBP.

The Reds were 1-2 against Detroit which is second in the AL with a .337 OBP.  Cincinnati was 2-1 against the New York Yankees that is third with a .334 OBP.

Against teams they are most likely to face in the playoffs, the Reds are 26-25.  It is not good enough when you need to be 4-3 to advance in the playoffs, is it?

If you believe that statistics is the indicator of success in baseball then Dusty Baker must change.  With 30 games left it is time to get serious and stop tempting fate.