Blame Karma Not Baker

The Reds are following an established pattern.  Every 20 years the Reds win their division title. The next year they play losing baseball.

Sparky Anderson's Reds won 102 games in 1970.  The next year Sparky should have been fired.  The Reds won just 79 games.  Thankfully, Bob Howsam was smart enough to know that Anderson didn't become dumb over the winter of 70.  The Reds avoided canning the second year manager.

Twenty years later, Lou Piniella's Reds went wire-to-wire, winning 91 games.  The incompetent Piniella won just 74 games in 1991, finishing 14 games below .500.

Another 20 years passed.  The Reds won 91 games in 2010, the first winning season since 2000.

Dusty Baker forgot how to manage this season and the Reds are now a season-high six games under .500.and 11 games out of first place.  Baker could wise up and/or hitters can stop leaving over seven runners per game on base.

What has made Baker dumb this year is Scott Rolen's lack of production in the middle of the lineup.  Through 115 games in 2010, Rolen had a .296 batting average, hit 18 home runs and 62 RBI.  This year Rolen, who just had shoulder surgery.  This season Rolen is hitting .242 with five home runs and 36 RBI.  Recently traded Jonny Gomes hit .211 with 11 home runs and 31 RBI.  Gomes finished last season with a .266 average with 18 home runs and 86 RBI.

Drew Stubbs, and Jay Bruce are ahead of last year's pace.

Bronson Arroyo is having an off year.  Unless Arroyo finds his true form, he would fail to win 15 games for the first time in three seasons.

Baker is a victim of a dark historical pattern.  His moves are not working this season because his players aren't matching last year's run production.  The pitchers have had patches of bad outings both from the bullpen and from the starters.

Jack McKeon has managed World Champion teams.  He's managed several teams across four decades and has also been a general manager.

He discussed how hard it was to repeat a championship in baseball.  "You count on the same production year to year from your veteran players but it doesn't always happen for a lot of reasons," McKeon said.  "You assume that young players will improve but that doesn't always happen either.  Once you win, opponents notice you and put a circle around you games on their schedule.  Nothing is guaranteed."