Research Reveals Steve Smith Numbers Are Correct

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Steve Smith has been taking a lot of heat for Reds runners being thrown out at home plate.

The Reds have had a National League high 27 runners thrown out at home without being a force, pickoff or caught stealing.

Smith claimed that only 10 were thrown out because he sent them, including Bryan Pena, who tried to score from second on a Brandon Phillips' single on Wednesday. Bryan Price gave the same figure on Thursday morning.

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Statistician Joel Luckhaupt spent hours reviewing all 27 outs and gave this breakdown.

11 outs were from the contact play.  Contact plays are managers decisions and predetermined based on the situation.

Four outs were clearly the runner making the decision on his own.

Two were off sacrifice flies which are runners reading the play, although the thirdbase coach can hold them.

10 were outs at home where a runner tried to score on a hit to the outfield.

Of those 10 three were close plays and two were close enough to be reviewed.

That leaves seven in which Smith played a part in the outcome.

"If I sent 25 guys that were thrown out at home, I'd fire myself," Smith said.

First year manager Bryan Price determined in spring training the Reds; intended to be more aggressive on the base paths. 

Price has used the tag play because the Reds have struggled so much at the plate.

"I don't know the percentages," Price said.  "A lot of them were early in the season.  Our offense was stagnant.  It is not uncommon to go on contact with one out and the infield playing in.  Maybe, its your eight hole hitter, or a guy is struggling on deck and you want to take that chance."

It is a common play in baseball and a calculated risk.

"All you really need is for the ball to go enough to the right or left of the infielder where they have to leave their feet or gather themselves to throw.  With one out it is pretty common.  With no outs it's a lot less common," Price said.

A lot depands on who the batter is.

"If it is Brandon Phillips at the plate and Joey Votto on deck or someone swinging the bat well, you might want them to hit with two outs and a runnier on third," Price said.  "Or if it is Billy (Hamilton) if the runner is thrown out he can steal a base and you still have a runner in scoring position with two outs."

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"We're hitting .220 as a team with runners in scoring position," said Price.  "What are you waiting for/"

Smith has been vilified on radio talk shows.

'I don't listen to them," Price said. "Mark Berry talked about people yelling to him about decisions that he made.  A lot of the decisions are made by the manager. They are consistent baseball decisions that are made around baseball. It doesn't matter if it's Dusty Baker, Bobby Cox or Tony La Russa.  The Cardinals have beat us that contact play a dozen times since I've been here on balls that we've fielded in the infield and the runner scored."

"You'd have to go back and see how many times we've scored on the play to see if it is a good move or not," Price said.  "In the end, I don't care what you think.  If we're sitting around waiting to score runs, if we're going to be less aggressive. We're going to score fewer runs in my opinion."

"It isn't like Roger Craig teaching the first split finger.  It is a play that is common in baseball," Price said.  "For whatever reason, we had a lot of guys throw out at the plate the first third of the season."
What about Pena last night?

"It is just trying to make the right decision," Price said. "We've had 10 guys thrown out trying to score where Smitty's been in charge of sending them. I don't think that's a ridiculous number by any means."