Arroyo Is a Number One Starter

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The statements is made over and over again. The Cincinnati Reds don’t have a number one starter. The Reds need a number one starter to win. The Cardinals have two number one starters. The Reds don’t have any. Really?


Let’s take a hard statistical look. First of all, there is a floating definition of a number one starter. Is it a pitcher you can count on to stop a losing streak? Is it the guy that pitches against the oppositions ace?

In baseball there is really is no such thing. Any pitcher in any given situation, can pitch a gem or a clunker. Over the long term of a season, those definitions will even out. One can point out anecdotal evidence to the contrary but if a good close analysis is made of the entire season, the cream rises to the top.

Games that end a losing streak are no more important in the standings as those that extend a winning streak or evens a given series up at one game apiece.Arroyo is one of only five pitchers in the Major Leagues with at least with 1,087.1 innings pitched.

Take a look at these facts, Arroyo is one of only five pitchers in the Major Leagues with at least 15 wins in each of the last 3 seasons (Roy Halladay,CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Tim Lincecum). In each of the last 6 seasons, Arroyo has produced at least 32 starts and 200 innings pitched. He is one of only three pitchers to record at least 200 innings in each of the last six seasons, joining Dan Haren and Mark Buehrle, and his 1,292.2 innings pitched over the last six years are fourth-most in the majors behind only Sabathia (1351.0), Haren (1343.0) and Halladay (1322.2), Since he was acquired by the Reds prior to the 2006 season, he leads all Major League pitchers with 169 starts (tied w/Haren) and leads the National League with 1,087.1 innings pitched.

Also, Chris Carpenter, who is regarded as the Cardinals number one starter, has logged 117 quality starts. Arroyo in the same period has 149. The other Cardinals starter, Adam Wainwright, doesn’t have as much time as a starter compared to the other two, having only become a starter in 2007. Still in four seasons, including outstanding seasons in 2009 and 2010, Wainwright has produced a quality start in 7 out of every 10 starts. During the same time frame Arroyo is right there with 6.3 out of 10 starts were quality starts. The difference is less than one in 10 starts.

If Arroyo by definition is not a number one starter, then why is he in the statistical company of those that are considered number one starters.

Set aside the wins. Forget the ERA. Arroyo will keep his team in the game in an overwhelming number of starts. He will have games in which he is hit very hard and his ERA suffers but the statistics above prove that over the long haul, he is among the top five or six starters in the baseball.

"You know how Bronson is," Cincinnati manager Dusty Baker said.  "He will be hit around for four or five games then throw seven good ones."

If Arroyo is not a number one starter, then there is genuinely, no such thing.

Arroyo allowed just one run against Toronto on Sunday over eight innings, his longest effort of the season.  He has quality starts in three of his last four outings.  The one outing he didn't get credit for a quality start, he pitched 7 2/3 innings in a 6-4 win in Los Angeles.  The fourth run kept him from it scored after he left the game.

While the Reds count on Arroyo to stop losing streaks and his numbers equal many pitchers, who are considered number one, he thinks Johnny Cueto is the Reds number one starter.

"The closest thing we have to a number one is Johnny," Arroyo said. "Honestly I wouldn't say I'm a number one.  Cueto is a guy that can go out there without his grade A stuff and give the other teams fits because he throws hard.  He is kind of dialing it in.  If I feel good on certain days, I can feel like I'm a number one.  I'm going to be consistent, man.  I have a lot of innings in my arm.  I'm not even what I was four or five years ago."

He felt like a number one today.

"When you leave the ballgame after eight innings and it's 2-1, I feel like I'm a number one."