Why Dusty Baker Is A Winning Manager

Fans tend to find fault with all managers but it is mystifying to me how many fans second guess Dusty Baker.

I don't remember who said it first but there is adage that states, "There are two things that every man thinks he can do better than any other man.  One is to grill steaks.  The other is to manage a baseball team."

What fans tend to want the manager to do is to micromanage every game.  They forget that there are 162 games in a season.  Sometimes the manager is better off thinking long term.  Also, there are far two many statistics quoted in the game.  Some are meaningful.  Most are not.

A hitter can have 20 at bats against a certain pitcher with great success but a percentage of the time, even if it is a small percentage, a pitcher will get the best of that same hitter.  Sometimes the law of averages come into play.  Statistics show what has happened they are less reliable when predicting what will happen.

Does Baker look at statistics? Yes, but he trusts his eyes more.  He takes note of everything.  He can tell which hitters have the type of swing will be an advantage against certain pitchers.  That ability is a better predictor than all the Bill James analysis, in particular when the sample is so small.  This is crucial when you have a lot of young players.

Baker with his 43 years of experience as a player, hitting coach and a manager, also has the ability to project into the future.   I have had the opportunity to talk to him occasionally about baseball for the last 18 years, since he took over as manager of the San Francisco Giants.  In the last four years, I've had the opportunity to talk and listen about baseball on nearly a daily basis.  He is excellent at communicating his thought process and I have learned a lot about the flesh and blood souls that produce the statistics.  I find myself relying less on statistics.

One great example that fans tend to overlook is Baker's decision to move Jay Bruce to second in the batting order and dropping Brandon Phillips to clean up.  One factor in his decision was the injury to veteran clean up hitter Scott Rolen.  Batting fifth early in the season, Bruce struggled.  By putting him second in the batting order ahead of the Red hot Joey Votto, Baker realized that Bruce would see more fastballs.  Bruce a fastball hitter would likely be able to hit the fastball.  It worked Bruce had some success, regained his confidence and now is one of the most productive hitters on the team.

Baker noticed that Votto was sluggish and his concentration was waning.  That comes from the day-in-day out grind.  Baker picked a spot to rest the MVP.   At the same time, it kept the hot hitting Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan, whose bat has also come alive, in the batting order.  The result, Hernandez hit a home run and extended his hitting streak to six games.

Votto returned to the lineup after a mental and physical break and had two doubles and a single on Tuesday.

Fans and writers tend to put too much emphasis on the game at hand.  They fail to think long term.

Another choice Baker made recently in a game that did not end well.  He was second guessed by many for not bringing lefthander, Aroldis Chapman to face lefthanded hitting, Kosuke Fukodome with the game on the line.  Baker knew that Chapman lately, has had control problems.  He waited to get Chapman into a situation where it wasn't critical for him to be as sharp.

Champman relieved Homer Bailey in the eighth inning on Tuesday with a 7-0 lead.  Chapman's struggles continued and he walked three and hit a batter, allowing three runs.  After 12 scoreless inning to start the season, Chapman has allowed six runs in his last three appearances, covering one inning.  In that one inning of pitching Chapman has walked eight and hit a batter.

Since Chapman signed two years ago, Baker has been telling anyone who would listen, not to get carried away with the 23-year olds ability to throw the ball up to 106 miles an hour.  Baker knew that Chapman would struggle at times.  He has said it many times.  Baker with the consultation of pitching coach Bryan Price will continue to pick spots in which Chapman can regain his command.

So many people have wanted to rush Chapman to success.  Baker is really managing Chapman's development.   Chapman as well as Bruce, Chris Heisey, Drew Stubbs and Jonny Gomes have the ability to be special and Baker is continuing to facilitate their positive progress while still winning.

Baker hates to lose and knows that challenging these players may cost the Reds a game here and there.  He also knows that a losing a game or two now will lead to more wins down the road.

Baseball is a marathon.

Fans get frustrated on game strategy and player use in a loss but Baker knows what he's doing.

As Leo Durocher once said,"You can't ever listen to the guy in the stands or you will soon be joining them."