Second Guessing Dusty Baker

OK, Why did Dusty Baker remove Bronson Arroyo after 94 pitches?  Well knowing Dusty it is certainly NOT because fans thought he stayed with Arroyo too long in games last year.

The fact is that pinch-hitter, Chad Tracy, had a .364 batting average against Arroyo.  Tracy had never faced Bill Bray before, the advantage goes to the pitcher in that situation.  Davey Johnson countered with Xavier Nady burning a player which could have come in handy in a 13 innings game.

Nady hit a fly to deep left that Ryan Ludwick got the glove on but could not pull down.  The ball left the playing field for a game tying home run.

The Reds were in the position because the hitters managed just three hits in the first 10 innings.  Arroyo got the only Reds run home with a sacrifice fly in the fifth inning.  Arroyo had one of the three Reds hit and its first hit of the game.  The Reds are hitting just .204 as a team.  That is going to put the manager in a bind a lot.

The leftfield tandem of Chris Heisey and Ryan Ludwick are not tearing up the league right now.
Heisey is hitting .200 with with a double and two RBI.   Heisey has fanned five times in 15 at bats.
Ludwick is hitting .150 with two doubles and three RBI.  He has struck out four times in 20 at bats. Ludwick has walked four times so he has been on base more.

The Reds had its best chance to score in the 11th.  Ryan Ludwick led off with a double.  Zack Cozart hit for Willie Harris.  Cozart one of the best bunters on the team was asked to bunt Ludwick to third.. Cozart failed to get it done, popping the bunt to catcher, Wilson Ramos for the first out.  Pinch hitter, Heisey struck out as did Drew Stubbs.  Can you blame Dusty for that?

Sean Marshall, the closer by default, was on the mound in the bottom of the 13th.  Marshall got Ian Desmond to ground out.  He got another ground ball from Danny Espinosa.  Cozart got to the ball but couldn't throw out Espinosa.  Marshall then walked Ryan Zimmerman and Andy LaRoche, forcing Baker to decide whether to play the infield in, play in at the corners with the Cozart and Valdez playing at double play depth or play the infield at normal depth.  The outfield had to come in.

Each option comes with risks.

The infield at normal depth has more range but if the ball is hit to third or first, there is little chance of a double play.

If the infield is in, the batter's average goes up .100 points because the infield has no range.  The ball has to be hit directly at the fielder to cut off the winning run at the plate.

If the infield is in at the corners to cut the run off at the plate with the shortstop and secondbaseman at double play depth, you open holes between short and third and between first and second.

A lot depends on what the scouting report says and how the pitcher matches up with the hitter.

Jayson Werth hit a single up the middle just to the shortstop side of secondbase.  The Reds lose another extra inning game in Washington.

The bullpen is depleted so Saturday's starter, Homer Bailey needs to go deep into the game.  If he is not sharp he may have to stay out there longer than Baker would normally leave him.