Dateline: Cincinnati
Breaking down a game winning event in a situation where both managers use strategy to squeeze a victory out of a close game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds.
The bottom of the 11th inning of the second game of a rain induced doubleheader
The game is tied with Spencer Steer starting in second base as the man who made the last out in the 10th.
The Cardinals pitcher, Riley O’Brien is tough on right handed hitters acceding to Reds’ manager Terry Francona. He also gets ground balls 1.50 times more than fly balls and for his career 57% of those ground balls against right handed are hit up the middle rather than the opposite field or pull side.
This is the data set a available to St. Louis manager Oliver Mormol.
With the winning run on third base and one out. Mormol decided to pitch around Dane Myers. The on deck hitter Blake Dunn has less experience and is a rookie trying to impress, putting more pressure in himself.
Mormol brought left fielder Brayan Torres, who was in his second game of a major league career after 11 years in minor league baseball. He had played 213 games as an infielder. He was placed in the hole at shortstop with Masyn Winn moved up the middle. Mormol had no one in left field, the other two fielders were shallow and up the middle.
Why?
“I leave left field open hoping they try to hit it that way. Usually when they try to pull it they end up on top of the ball which leads to my three infielders on that side of the infield,” Mormol said. “If I split them they see they want to stay up the middle which leads to a better swing.”
Mormol was trying to bait Dunn into trying to hit to a gap rather than staying up the middle where Dunn’s strength is.
“You make them want to do that. That’s very difficult to do against Riley. Think of the approach you would take to go to right field against Riley. That is the approach which would give you the most success. I would almost do that with anybody except our lefties. Your just trying to bank on a poor approach (from the hitter). You have to bank on what’s most likely, a pull side ground ball or a slice to right field.”
Dunn did not take the bait.
“He (O’Brien) ran that sinker in. I kind of got fisted but was able to keep it away from that guy up the middle,” Dunn said.
The hit traveled past the pitcher’s mound in the air, costing Steer a split second to make sure it wasn’t caught in the air. The fact that it was low enough and caused Winn to take two steps to his left, forcing him to throw against his momentum that allowed Steer to just beat the throw and avoid the catcher’s tag.
“It was an awkward read with that kind of short floater. Steer was able to make a good slide at home and just beat it.”
Dunn didn’t change his approach.
“I’m trying to work through the middle of the field. With the five infielders, I would say ideally you want to hit the ball in the air. For me, I’m just trying to keep it simple. To keep it the same. If I work in the big part of the field, the middle of the field good things will usually happen. I stayed to the middle of the field and come through with an RBI there,” Dunn said.
Francona explained the heroics of Steer and Dunn.
“Steer did a good job there,” Francona said. “He was ready for a bunt. He was already thinking go.”
“That guy (O’Brien) has really been tough on righties. Dunn did enough. What he’s doing so well, he is just playing the game. He’s not trying to do too much. He’s just playing the game,” Francona explained.
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